Bad bruckenau schoolchildren analyze population figures
The city council has already discussed the declining population in bad bruckenau several times. Now, in the main committee, twelve students from the franz miltenberger high school dared to make a forecast up to the year 2035. In this unusual project as part of a P-seminar, the young people work with the expert on demographic change, dr. Rainer gottwald, together.
The idea for this project came from his namesake, peter gottwald, a teacher at the franz miltenberger high school. He worked for more than a year with the schoolchildren in the framework of the seminar. The idea of extending this forecast to the bruckenau rhonallianz came to him during the lessons. "Since only three students come from the bad bruckenau area and the remaining nine are from the old district, these figures are particularly interesting." The students were quickly enthusiastic about the seminar and eager to get started. "It concerns us and "the project was not easy, says schoolmaster martin hergenroder. They are proud of their results, after all, the students invested a lot of time and effort. They work on their project for two hours a week each.
Complicated reappraisal
The first thing the students did was to get statistical data from the population registration offices. "The subsequent processing is complicated, the data is analyzed, and extreme values have to be determined", says dr. Gottwald. With the help of this analysis and other important factors such as inflows, outflows, deaths and the birth rate, a so-called sample presentation was created.
Then they compared the forecasts for the years 2011 and 2012 and the statistical data. After reanalyzing and working out the error rate, the schoolchildren ventured a forecast for 2035. One result: in just over 20 years, the 75- to 85-year-olds will make up the largest cohorts, while the number of expected schoolchildren will drop by one-third. By comparison: in 2012, the age group between 55 and 65 was disproportionately represented.
The forecast also aroused the interest of the city administration. At the main committee meeting, the students presented their results and provoked discussion. "We need to change our infrastructure", was one conclusion drawn by the panel. "Some decisions we won't like, it was clear to the city council. Mayor brigitte meyerdierks (CSU) concurred with the opinion, but also pointed out that bad bruckenau was "in line with this trend throughout germany" liege.
The continuation of the practical seminar in cooperation with the city should be maintained. How or in what form is not yet known. Furthermore, there are forecasts for the individual communities of the bruckenau rhonallianz. These results are to be gradually presented to the respective mayors and municipal councils. The first demonstration will be held in the municipality of oberleichtersbach.
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